Tehran to move due to earthquake threat?

Is Tehran going to move?

Iran's capital may be moved. Somehow.

Due to the fact that Tehran stands a high chance of being struck by a major earthquake in the near future, Iran's rulers have said they are considering plans to 'relocate the country's capital'. The questions are numerous - how do you relocate an entire capital city? What stays and what goes? And where do you put a city that is home to 12 million people?

Iran's capital since 1795, Tehran is a sprawling metropolis in the shadows of the Alborz mountain range. With 12 million inhabitants, a host of art galleries, parks and universities, not to mention the political and economic heart of Iran, Tehran is also the largest city in the Middle East.

Earthquake threat

However, Iran is frequently hit by earthquakes and experts think that the capital will suffer a devastating quake during the upcoming decades. The quake that killed some 40,000 people in the south-eastern city of Bam in 2003 has certainly brought the issue to the forefront of the Iranian government and as such, there is a long-term strategy (The 20-Year Outlook Plan) to see the capital moved by 2025.

The plan would need approval from all the governmental bodies before any relocation begins however, despite Iranian seismologists warning that Tehran lies on at least 100 known fault lines, and would not survive a major quake intact.

However this week, The Tehran Times has reported that the expediency council has approved plans by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to end Tehran's days as a capital and transfer the country's power to a new city, possibly built between the holy city of Qom and Delijan, in Markazi province.

Liberal centre

There is however a problem with the capital city moving towards Qom. Tehran is traditionally a centre for the more liberal minded citizens and, in recent times, has seen anti-government riots in response to the suspected election fraud.

By moving the capital city to Qom, which is the spiritual home of Iran's conservative Islamic establishment it sends signals that the government is seeking to end potential liberal-led uprisings and making sure that the new capital is more conservative in its outlook.

There is also another problem. Whilst Tehran is a business hub and home to companies that produce automobiles, electrical equipment, textiles, sugar, cement, and chemical products, it is also a cultural and economic centre. It is relatively easy to transfer companies to new regions, but if the new capital is merely business-based, there are fears it will soon fall without any other form of economy or culture driving it forwards.

"A new city takes 10 to 20 years to build"

Andrew Jones of the engineering, planning and architectural design firm AECOM spoke to the BBC on the subject saying, "Generally, our capital cities are economic powerhouses as well as seats of government. That takes a long time to bed in,"

"A new city generally takes 10 to 20 years to build, it takes a century or more to mature into something that is an attractive and self-sustaining place."

It is something the Iranian government are going to consider when moving their seat of power. Like Brazil before them with Rio De Janiero, the capital city sees people flooding in from all over the country to set up lives in what they see as a prosperous area.

The decision to move to a less populated location, like Brazil did with Brasilia, could be an extremely costly process. The total cost of moving Brazil's capital from Rio to Brasilia is so huge it has never really all been accounted for, and in these times of economic difficulty, Iran is going to have to think long and hard about the best way to uproot their capital.

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