Opportunity knocks

Douglas Spragg, CEO and Managing Director of SAL Consultants, reveals why a decrease in growth equals an increase in opportunity.

The world economic slow down affecting the Gulf area provides an opportunity to recover and review the developments for the capacity of the airspace and airports in preparation of the future spurt of growth that is bound to occur when global recovery finally arrives. The breathing space provided permits an in-depth review of all aspects of the aviation stakeholders’ interests, whether military or civil.

In reviewing the Gulf area, the first characteristic to be seen is the channelling of the European and Far Eastern aircraft into a relatively limiting route structure restricted further by the proliferation of military airspace. Whilst it would be natural to use the lessening pressure of traffic to recoup budgets and reduce developments, this reduction should be taken as an opportunity to re-evaluate the capacity strategy without the time pressures often seen in areas of growth.

The boundaries between Air Traffic Control Centres are often also boundaries between traffic handling techniques and procedures, often forcing traffic over a particular point on the boundary. Airspace is often divided by permanent boundaries between civil and military and political priorities and takes prime position overshadowing the aviation stakeholders’ needs and priorities.

There are many alternative solutions that have been put into practice in many
countries, from the European ‘open skies’ concept to the American flexible civil military airspace practices. The reduction of vertical separation has provided relief in many areas where the traffic is composed of mainly over-flights.

So, how to start? Perhaps the first steps are to clarify, from a purely operational viewpoint, the current constraints as recognised by both the air traffic controllers and their aircrew counterparts. The implementation of a ‘Fire Brigade’ of experienced controllers and pilots could examine all the little blockages in the system that, whilst relatively small, when added up in heavy traffic streams cause a major workload problem.

Adding to the above task force, the military partners should be involved from the very first by including the military controllers, air defence and pilots. In order to keep these groups manageable, both groups should be examining their own areas of operation to see where the weaknesses of operation occur. It is only after this exercise that both groups should get together to compare their findings with a common view to highlighting solutions that can initially be put into place, the more complex being highlighted for further ‘proofs’ arising from modelling and simulation. It is likely that the concept of ‘Flexible Use of Airspace’ will make an appearance at this stage. Since the initial exercise was to examine all weaknesses and problems covered by both civil and military partners, there should be a basic understanding of the needs to be aspired to in the simulation.

Whilst this bottom up approach is being started, a review at senior management level needs to be addressed where the political aspects of co-operative civil and military development planning are examined to investigate the requirements of clear and co-ordinated project design and development can be initiated or strengthened. At the same time a review of the whole Gulf region should be initiated with the aim of opening up the airspace divisions whether civil/civil or civil/military.

In exploring capacity improvements, airports can often be treated separately, but capacity is only as good as the weakest link in this complex chain and the imbalance can cause a build up of delays for both arriving and departing traffic. For arrivals this ends up as holding in medium to high levels and for departures a backlog with infrastructure problems as staff are being directed to priority needs.

The instinct to reduce budgeting during times of a downturn is understandable, but expensive in the longer term, not only to the budgeting organisation but also to industry in general as the necessary planning and implementation has been delayed, often measured in years.